When Mac Jones, the quarterback of San Francisco 49ers, steps onto the field for Thursday night’s Week 5 showdown, fantasy owners are already checking their lineups. The matchup against the Los Angeles Rams at 8:15 PM ET is slated for a mild 74 °F evening, and the consensus from FantasyPros puts Jones at an estimated 13.6 fantasy points. That number lands him at #24 among quarterbacks in the weekly expert rankings, a spot that could swing a tight roster from hopeful to hopeless. Here’s why that projection matters, and whether you should hit the start button or sit him this week.
Season Snapshot: Jones’s Numbers So Far
Jones, a 27‑year‑old former University of Alabama Crimson Tide standout, has been a study in consistency. Over his first three games of the 2025 season, he’s averaged 301.7 passing yards, 2.0 passing touchdowns, and 3.3 rushing yards per contest, culminating in a solid 19.4 fantasy points per game average. His most recent outing against the Arizona Cardinals (Week 3) delivered 284 passing yards, one touchdown, and a modest -1 rushing yard for 14.3 fantasy points. The week before that, he torched New Orleans (Week 2) with 279 yards, three touchdowns, and six rushing yards, netting 21.8 fantasy points.
Those numbers translate into a season‑to‑date passing volume that mirrors his three‑week trend, underscoring a quarterback who’s not just flashing brilliance in isolated games but sustaining it week after week. The consistency has also kept his weekly floor respectable, even when the 49ers offense falters against tougher defenses.
Week 5 Projection vs. Rams: The Numbers Behind 13.6 Points
According to the expert consensus, Jones is slated to complete roughly 21.1 of 32.7 pass attempts for 222.9 yards, toss 1.2 touchdowns, and risk 0.8 interceptions. On the ground he’s projected to scramble 2.8 times for 10.4 yards with a paltry 0.1 rushing touchdowns and a 0.3 fumble chance. Those figures stack up to the 13.6 fantasy point ceiling that most analysts are betting on.
Meanwhile, Pro Football Network offers a more modest outlook: 182 passing yards, 0.9 touchdowns, and an 11.1‑point total in PPR formats. The discrepancy springs from differing expectations around the Rams’ pass rush and Jones’s release speed, a factor we’ll unpack next.
Matchup Analysis: Rams’ Pass Rush vs. Jones’s Fast Release
The Rams currently rank fifth in the league for sack production, a pressure pack that could spell trouble for any quarterback. But Jones boasts the ninth‑fastest time to throw in the NFL, a metric that, according to analytics from FantasyPros, helps neutralize elite pass rushes. The theory is simple: the quicker the ball leaves his hand, the less time defenders have to close in.
That advantage becomes especially relevant in a Thursday night environment where stadium lighting and cooler temperatures can accentuate defensive aggression. If Jones can maintain his quick release, the Rams’ edge may be blunted, pushing his fantasy output closer to the 13.6‑point mark. Conversely, any misstep—like a delayed dropback or a forced throw—could inflate his interception risk and dent his floor.
Fantasy Advisory: Start or Sit?
For owners with a deep bench, the decision is relatively straightforward: start him. The 13.6‑point projection, combined with a decent matchup against a defense that, while strong, is mitigated by Jones’s release speed, makes him a viable flex option in most formats.
However, if you’re eyeing a higher‑ceiling play, you might look to a quarterback with a more favorable opponent or a proven track record of exceeding projections in similar defensive environments—think a player facing a bottom‑ranked rush or a team that forces turnovers. In that scenario, Jones could become a bench sit, especially in leagues where the scarcity of elite QBs forces you to chase only the highest upside.
Bottom line: start him if you need consistency, sit him only if you have a clearly superior alternative with a better matchup.
Broader Context: 2025 Fantasy Trends and the Run‑Heavy Eagles
While the 49ers lean toward a balanced attack, the league’s overall offensive philosophy continues to swing toward the run. The Philadelphia Eagles lead the NFL with a 54.4% run‑heavy play‑call percentage in 2025, echoing their 2024 dominance at roughly 56%. That shift means quarterbacks who can supplement a solid aerial game with occasional scrambling value rise in drafts.
Jones’s modest rushing numbers (averaging 3.3 yards per game) don’t make him a dual‑threat star, but they do add a safety net when his passing rhythm stalls. In a league where a few bonus points can clinch a win, that extra yardage can be the difference between a win and a loss.
What’s Next for Jones and the 49ers?
Looking beyond Week 5, the 49ers’ schedule pits them against a variety of defensive styles. In Week 6 they travel to face the Seattle Seahawks, a team that ranks 23rd in pass rush but boasts a potent secondary. If Jones can keep the ball clean against Seattle, his fantasy value could climb above his current weekly average.
Meanwhile, the quarterback battle in San Francisco remains relatively stable—no significant rumors of a trade or injury have surfaced. As long as the coaching staff sticks with the current offensive scheme, Jones will continue to be the primary fantasy asset for 49ers owners, barring any unforeseen injuries.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Mac Jones’s projection impact my fantasy lineup this week?
At an estimated 13.6 points, Jones offers a solid middle‑of‑the‑road floor. If your roster lacks a high‑ceiling quarterback, he’s a safe start; otherwise, consider benching him for a QB with a more favorable matchup.
What makes the Rams’ pass rush a concern for fantasy owners?
The Rams sit fifth in the league for sacks per game, meaning they generate pressure quickly. That can inflate interception risk and lower a quarterback’s fantasy floor, especially if the QB’s release is sluggish.
Is Mac Jones’s quick release speed enough to neutralize the Rams?
Analytics from FantasyPros suggest his ninth‑fastest time to throw reduces the window for sacks, giving him a better chance to hit his projected points despite the Rams’ pressure.
How do the Eagles’ run‑heavy tendencies affect quarterback scoring league‑wide?
When teams emphasize the run, QBs often see fewer attempts but can benefit from play‑action passes that lead to big gains. The trend elevates the value of quarterbacks who can add a few rushing yards, like Jones, in a run‑dominant environment.
What should I watch for in Jones’s performance against Seattle next week?
Seattle’s secondary is vulnerable to deep throws, but they apply moderate pass rush. If Jones can stay clean and exploit the secondary, his fantasy output could jump well above his weekly average.
